APPENDIX 1
MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL STRATEGY TABLES
Core Planning Assumptions
The table below sets out the core planning assumptions included in the MTFS projections:
|
|
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
|
Pay inflation and pay related matters: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Provision for pay award |
3.00% |
2.75% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Employers pension contribution rate change |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
General inflation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Inflation on social care third party payments |
3.50% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on non-pay expenditure |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
|
- Inflation on waste PFI |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
- Inflation on income |
3.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on parking income |
3.50% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on penalty charge notices |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Resources: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change to Revenue Support Grant (RSG) |
6.70% |
1.64% |
1.63% |
1.64% |
2.00% |
|
Business rates poundage inflation uplift |
6.70% |
1.64% |
1.63% |
1.64% |
2.00% |
|
Assumed council tax threshold increase |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
|
Adult Social Care Precept |
2.00% |
2.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Council Tax Base |
0.90% |
1.50%* |
0.75% |
0.75% |
0.50% |
* Includes the introduction of Second Homes Premium which is equivalent to a 0.9% increase in the tax base.
Summary of Latest MTFS Projections
The table below sets out the latest budget gap (savings requirement) taking into account the anticipated expenditure over the MTFS period and the funding resources available. Please note that this does not yet include additional grant funding expected to flow from the Autumn Statement as the detailed distribution methodology and amounts will not be confirmed until receipt of the Local Government Financial Settlement in December:
|
Medium Term Financial Strategy 2025 to 2029 |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
|
£m |
£m |
£m |
£m |
|
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
246.355 |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
|
Remove net one off short term funding and expenditure |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
246.355 |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
|
Standard Pay and Inflation – Expenditure |
13.093 |
12.161 |
12.450 |
12.811 |
|
Standard Inflation - Income |
(3.283) |
(3.613) |
(3.718) |
(3.260) |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures in Adult Social Care including Adult Learning Disabilities |
8.100 |
13.863 |
14.666 |
15.019 |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures for Children’s disability, Children in Care, and Care Leavers |
2.607 |
3.444 |
3.337 |
3.249 |
|
Temporary Accommodation and Rough Sleepers - cost and demand pressures |
4.086 |
0.193 |
0.198 |
0.204 |
|
Home to School Transport - cost and demand pressures |
0.513 |
0.133 |
0.138 |
0.143 |
|
Schools PFI contract commitments |
0.180 |
0.561 |
0.596 |
0.000 |
|
Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) - High Needs Block - review of usage |
3.044 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Income Pressures – falling demand |
3.026 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Increased cost of public realm maintenance and food waste pilot |
2.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Concessionary Bus Fares - increased burden due to change in calculation |
1.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
All other pressures across council services |
7.346 |
4.383 |
4.385 |
3.590 |
|
Mainstream Digital and Transformation Support Functions |
2.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Reduction/loss of Services Grant/New Homes Bonus |
0.133 |
0.160 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Change in S31 Grants |
10.149 |
(0.400) |
(0.411) |
(0.486) |
|
Commitment - Change in contributions to/from reserves |
0.320 |
0.000 |
(1.125) |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Change in financing Costs |
4.223 |
1.033 |
(0.195) |
0.953 |
|
Commitment - Pay award 2024/25 above 3% inflation assumption |
1.300 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - impact of previous decisions, grant changes and assumptions |
(0.004) |
0.860 |
0.350 |
0.242 |
|
Budget Gap (Savings Requirement) |
(36.699) |
(23.982) |
(21.543) |
(23.247) |
|
Budget Requirement C/Fwd |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
296.721 |
|
Funded by: |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue Support Grant |
8.592 |
8.732 |
8.875 |
9.051 |
|
Locally retained Business Rates |
67.477 |
68.911 |
70.382 |
72.126 |
|
Collection Fund position |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Council Tax including Adult Social Care Precept |
193.420 |
200.696 |
208.246 |
215.544 |
|
Total Funding |
269.489 |
278.339 |
287.503 |
296.721 |